This Sunday the season starts for real with many games. There are a few things I want to point out and explain before posting write-ups. I have already gotten many questions so I hope to clear things out so everyone understands. Obviously many of you know much about this sport but many don’t so I’ll try to cover most important things you need to know.

What I write now also covers NCAA since the rules are almost the same.

The scoring is the most important to understand. A touchdown gives 6 points with a 1 point kick after for a total of 7 points. There is also an opportunity to try for 2 points after the 6. This is very rare but sometimes happen in the end of the games. The other common way to score is a field goal. It’s a kick that gives 3 points. Many games are decided by a late field goal and almost all overtimes as well. The third way to score is through a safety which is when a player gets caught in his own endzone with the ball. This gives 2 points but is not common at all but it happens.

This makes 3 and 7 the magic numbers in this sport. Simple math also makes 4,6,10,13,14 very important numbers. So when a line moves it is very important to understand this since the difference between +-2.5,3,and 3.5 are so huge. Same thing with +- 6.5,7and 7.5. For some it might look tempting to take higher odds at for example -7.5 instead of lower odds at -7 but after reading this you know how much worse -7.5 is.

Sometimes I will play teasers. When playing teasers you buy points in 2 or more games. Most of my teasers will be in the NFL since the games are much closer than in NCAA. In am football teasers are a great idea when there is a good opportunity. A good opportunity means that the points bought covers several key numbers such as 3 and 7. For example if we have one dog at +1.5 and a fav at -8.5 it sets up for a good teaser. With a standard 6 point teaser it gets us the fav at -2.5 and the dog up to +7.5. In both games we move the line over both key numbers 3 and 7.

I often write about line movements by the public or sharp money. This is just what it sounds like. By understanding the line movements and betting patterns it is often a good way to know if you are on the right side of a game. Public bettors are most of the time on the wrong side while the pros often choose the other side. There are different ways often knowing who is on what side but that would take too much space.

Reverse line movement is the best indication of what the right side is on a game. That means the majority of the bets (public) is on one side but the line is moving the other way. This means there is serious money coming in on the other side of the public. These bets very often win.

The most important player in this sport is clearly the quarterback(QB). He is the passer that directs the offense. He communicates with the coaches on what strategy to use but sometimes decide himself what do to. If the QB gets hurt it’s a major blow for any team so line movements are usually significant. Sometimes they are too big and sometimes not enough but they often invite to action on the game.

Other important players are:

Defensive play caller. All teams have a defender who is responsible of calling what defensive play to use. The position varies but the player is always a big blow to lose.

Left tackle(RT). Protects the blind side of a right handed QB and is very important to give the QB time and security to throw. Backups are usually significantly weaker.

Nose tackle(NT) in a 3-4 defence with 3 linemen and 4 linebackers the nose is the most important player. There are usually only one such dominant player that fits for this on each team so if unable to play the teams usually have to change strategy.

Of course there are more very important players but they differ from team to team so it would not help to name more here.

I like to play dogs and here is a note about playing small dogs. When a team is a dog of +3 or less it is often a good idea to play the half time line( prob +1.5 or +2. If it is split between the whole game 50/50 or only first half is not that important. My point is that if the spread is +3 or lower it is very likely with a close game. Close games often end up being won by a field goal(3 points) and almost all overtimes are won by 3. In these close games a tied result in ht is not uncommon so instead of losing or pushing a game in overtime the tie would give us a win with the ht bet. Scores like 7-6, 14-13 are common in halftime so the small + lines often win compared to how often the small + lines win fulltime.

I hope this helped and it will be easier to read my write ups. It will also make my write-ups during the year shorter.