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Super Bowl Preview

I’ll write my thoughts here on the game and in the end I write what plays I’m considering.

First, Many people say big games is not the place for big bets but I completely disagree. The Super Bowl is the day where public/square money totally outweighs the sharp money. Often this creates opportunities for extra value on the “unattractive side of the game. Usually the public bets the fav and the over and that is especially true in this game where they get Manning at QB and 2 very good offenses.

The lines on this game is very interesting as the spread has moved from 3 to 6 and then down some again to 5. The total is the highest in Super Bowl history opening at 55 and now we see some 57s.

Many sharp bettors predicted the public would bet Indy so they started hitting it at -3 in Vegas and -4 online. Many of them probably took all of the +6 they have seen and some will bet the saints tomorrow for the middle or surebet. Many sharp bettors have all their action before the game even started. It’s very valuable to be able to predict line moves in the big games.

So to the game. In my opinion there is no value on the public side in almost any big games so it’s going against or no bet for me in these situations. So if you ask me it’s the under or New Orleans that is the play in this game. I see many big bets on the Colts from squares and I understand their thinking. They like Manning and Indy bettors have plenty money after they went 12-5-1 ATS this year.

I like New Orleans because of the matchups on the field. It sets up nicely for them with many matchup problems for Indy on defense. However, since Manning is so clutch in the end of games and very good at adjusting his play during the game I would place all New Orleans bet on FIRST HALF bets. It’s been very often this year bets against Indy has looked very good only to get trashed by Manning in the forth quarter.

I also like the under in this game. Most people predict a score like 37-30 win for the Colts. The public thinks it will fly over and I think we will see the total going up during the day so the under bets should probably be placed later on in the day when we can get good odds on under 57 or 57.5.

Many times when similar offenses play each other the total goes under. They know how to defend that type of attack since they see it all the time in practice. What’s interesting in this matchup is that both teams throw the ball very well. Both also have a below avg running defense and that is very important for my under bet. Most people would think that speaks for the over but I don’t think so. Both teams are very quick scoring if they get the chance so both defenses will have to protect against the deep throws. This will make it “easy’ to run for both teams in this game. Any coach takes a good running attack in any game if they can. That makes the possessions longer and winning the time of possession is very important to win the game. I think both teams will run as much as they can to keep the ball away from the other teams offense. New Orleans has a good running game that was ranked 6th in the league in the regular season. If you want to win against Manning you have to keep him on the sidelines so they will surely try to run.

I will add official plays during the day since many of my lines/odds are only going to get better as times goes.

Super Bowl af Larsen d. den 5 februari 2010 15:40

SV: Super Bowl af Chelidze90 d. den 5 februari 2010 23:53

SV: Super Bowl af Aaes89 d. den 8 februari 2010 04:36

SV: Super Bowl af Sutsko d. den 8 februari 2010 10:39

SV: Super Bowl af Aaes89 d. den 5 februari 2010 16:30

SV: Super Bowl af Goofy d. den 5 februari 2010 16:40

SV: Super Bowl af Goofy d. den 7 februari 2010 04:27

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